Prediktor Numerasi Peserta Didik SMA, SMK, dan MA berdasarkan Data Asesmen Nasional 2025

Surya Haryandi; Syukrul Hamdi; Ali Muhson

doi:10.24832/jpnk.v11i1.7177

Prediktor Numerasi Peserta Didik SMA, SMK, dan MA berdasarkan Data Asesmen Nasional 2025

Surya Haryandi

Universitas Lambung Mangkurat - Indonesia; Universitas Negeri Yogyakarta - Indonesia

Syukrul Hamdi

Universitas Negeri Yogyakarta - Indonesia

Ali Muhson

Universitas Negeri Yogyakarta - Indonesia

DOI: https://doi.org/10.24832/jpnk.v11i1.7177

Submitted

May 4, 2026

Published

Jun 30, 2026

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Citation

Haryandi, S., Hamdi , S., & Muhson, A. (2026). Prediktor Numerasi Peserta Didik SMA, SMK, dan MA berdasarkan Data Asesmen Nasional 2025 . Jurnal Pendidikan Dan Kebudayaan, 11(1), 1–34. https://doi.org/10.24832/jpnk.v11i1.7177

Abstract

Capaian numerasi peserta didik dipengaruhi oleh berbagai faktor individual dan kontekstual, namun kajian mengenai hubungan status sosial ekonomi, konteks wilayah, dan numerasi masih terbatas. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi prediktor skor numerasi, menguji nonlinieritas hubungan antara status sosial ekonomi dan numerasi, serta memeriksa peran moderasi wilayah urban-rural terhadap pengaruh status sosial ekonomi tersebut. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan analisis data sekunder Rapor Publik Asesmen Nasional 2025. Data penelitian mencakup 35.268 peserta didik dari 975 sekolah SMA, SMK, MA sederajat di seluruh Indonesia. Analisis data dilakukan menggunakan regresi ganda dengan koreksi Cluster-Robust Standard Error untuk mengatasi ketergantungan residual antarsiswa dalam sekolah yang sama. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa proporsi guru bersertifikasi merupakan prediktor institusional terkuat terhadap skor numerasi, diikuti oleh status wilayah urban dan gender peserta didik. Hubungan antara status sosial ekonomi dan numerasi terbukti bersifat nonlinier dengan pola kurva terbalik, dengan pengaruh yang semakin melemah pada tingkat status sosial ekonomi di atas rata-rata sampel. Lebih lanjut, pengaruh status sosial ekonomi terhadap numerasi dimoderasi secara signifikan oleh wilayah. Keuntungan yang diperoleh dari status sosial ekonomi yang lebih tinggi cenderung lebih terkonsentrasi di wilayah urban dibandingkan di wilayah rural. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa ketimpangan numerasi di Indonesia bersifat struktural dan tidak sekadar mencerminkan perbedaan karakteristik individu. Oleh karena itu, pemerataan distribusi guru bersertifikasi secara geografis serta pemberian intervensi afirmatif bagi sekolahsekolah di wilayah rural perlu menjadi prioritas kebijakan pendidikan.

Keywords

Asesmen Nasional guru bersertifikasi ketimpangan pendidikan numerasi status sosial-ekonomi

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